Prospective analysis of the impact of export coffee production on the future development of the Tarrazú canton in Costa Rica

Abstract

According to the author Michel Godet, "Prospective constitutes an anticipation (preactive and proactive) in order to illuminate present actions in the light of possible and desirable futures" (Godet, 2007, 6). In the case of the canton of Tarrazú in Costa Rica, the prospective study was determined through various phases, including a baseline diagnosis, the analysis of expert opinions on different variables under the Delphi methodology, the use of various software such as MICMAC and Mactor, and the development of relevant scenarios that will help anticipate future changes in the canton. The article summarizes the results of an exercise that seeks to provide strategic inputs so that key actors can make sound decisions using future scenarios as a reference, and the guidance that this prospective exercise provides on future opportunities and threats.